The administration of President Bola Tinubu is seeking three new World Bank facilities valued at a combined $1.5bn to finance programmes targeting climate resilience, social protection and early childhood development in Nigeria.
Documents from the World Bank indicate that each of the proposed facilities is valued at $500m, with the projects at different stages of preparation and consideration.
The proposed borrowing comes against the backdrop of a continued rise in Nigeria’s public debt. The Debt Management Office published its latest total public debt figures on September 25, 2026.
The first proposed facility is an additional $500m financing for the Agro-Climatic Resilience in Semi-Arid Landscapes project, popularly known as ACReSAL. The World Bank has scheduled October 29, 2026, as the estimated date for its board to consider the additional financing.
The Federal Republic of Nigeria is listed as the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Environment is designated as the implementing agency.
If approved, the additional funding will raise the overall size of ACReSAL from $700m to $1.2bn. The financing is expected to be provided entirely through the International Development Association, the World Bank’s concessional financing arm.
According to the World Bank document, the Nigerian government requested the additional funding “to scale up demonstrated project results and strengthen the institutional, operational and financing arrangements needed to sustain integrated landscape management.”
The proposed financing will cover a range of activities, including landscape restoration, watershed rehabilitation, erosion and flood control, irrigation and drainage, water harvesting and storage, reforestation and other interventions designed to strengthen climate resilience.
Of the proposed $500m, about $310m is earmarked for dryland management, while $165m is allocated to community climate resilience. Another $25m is proposed for institutional strengthening and project management.
ACReSAL is currently being implemented across 19 northern states and the Federal Capital Territory, with its interventions focused on problems such as land degradation, water insecurity, climate vulnerability and declining agricultural productivity.
The World Bank estimates that desertification and land degradation affect about 43 per cent of Nigeria’s land area. The lender also estimates that climate change could reduce Nigeria’s gross domestic product by about 2.6 per cent annually by 2030 and as much as 6.7 per cent by 2050 if adequate measures are not taken.
A second $500m facility under preparation is the Household Prosperity and Empowerment-Social Protection Project, known as HOPE-SP.
The proposed HOPE-SP financing remains at an earlier stage of preparation, with the World Bank’s technical design review scheduled for October 30, 2026. The bank has provisionally set March 16, 2027, for consideration of the project.
The Federal Ministry of Finance is listed as the borrower, while the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Reduction is expected to oversee implementation.
The proposed financing is divided into a $420m results-based programme and an $80m investment project financing component. Both components are expected to be funded through IDA.
The programme is intended to broaden social assistance for poor and vulnerable households while gradually increasing the participation of federal and state governments in financing social protection interventions.
The World Bank said the programme would establish “a sustainable social assistance to poor and vulnerable households, financed increasingly from federal and state budgets and delivered through strengthened state and local government systems.”
The proposed measures include targeted unconditional and conditional cash transfers, upgrades to the national social registry, incorporation of the National Identification Number into the social protection information system and stronger implementation arrangements across federal, state and local government levels.
The World Bank noted that Nigeria allocated only 0.14 per cent of its GDP to social safety-net programmes in 2021, compared with a global average of 1.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent for lower-middle-income countries.
The lender further estimated that the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty rose from 40 per cent in 2019 to 56 per cent in 2023 and could reach 62.5 per cent in 2026. It attributed the deterioration to several factors, including the COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, natural disasters and conflict, while also pointing to the short-term impact of fuel subsidy removal and exchange-rate reforms on household living costs.
The third proposed facility is another $500m World Bank loan for Nigeria’s Early Childhood Development programme.
The bank has scheduled October 30, 2026, for the project’s technical design review, while March 15, 2027, has been set as the estimated date for approval.
The Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the borrower, with the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning expected to implement the programme.
The proposed project will operate across all 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory and is designed to improve access to health, nutrition, early learning, childcare, water and sanitation services for children from birth to five years.
The $500m financing is expected to consist of $400m under a programme-for-results component and $100m through investment project financing.
The World Bank said the intervention was necessary because “40 percent of children under five are stunted, fewer than half are developmentally on track, 36 percent of children aged 36 to 59 months attend organised early learning,” with children from poor rural households bearing a significant share of the burden.
The proposed borrowing comes as Nigeria’s public debt continues to rise. DMO figures show that total public debt increased from N152.40tn in June 2025 to N166.79tn in June 2026, representing a rise of N14.39tn, or 9.44 per cent, within one year.
In dollar terms, total public debt rose from $99.66bn to $120.93bn over the same period, an increase of $21.27bn, or 21.35 per cent.
The disparity between the naira and dollar increases was partly associated with the exchange rate used to calculate the naira value of Nigeria’s external debt. The DMO used an exchange rate of N1,379.1842 to the dollar in June 2026, compared with N1,529.2105 a year earlier.
Nigeria’s debt stock also increased during the second quarter of 2026, climbing from N159.35tn in March to N166.79tn in June. The DMO maintains June 2026 as the latest published total public debt position.
Domestic debt stood at N91.59tn, accounting for 54.91 per cent of the total, while external debt was N75.20tn, representing 45.09 per cent.
The Federal Government accounted for the larger portion of the debt. Its domestic obligations stood at N87tn, while states and the Federal Capital Territory owed N4.59tn domestically. On the external debt side, the Federal Government owed N65.77tn, compared with N9.42tn owed by states and the FCT.
Nigeria’s exposure to the World Bank Group has also increased. According to DMO figures, the country owed $20.73bn to the World Bank Group as of June 2026, comprising $19.12bn owed to the International Development Association and $1.61bn to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development.
The amount represented an increase of $1.34bn from the $19.39bn Nigeria owed the World Bank Group in June 2025.
At $20.73bn, Nigeria’s World Bank obligations accounted for about 38 per cent of the country’s $54.52bn external debt at the end of June 2026.
Former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has recently raised concerns about Nigeria’s growing debt burden and called for greater disclosure regarding the country’s borrowing and debt-service obligations.
“A government that says more money is coming in must explain why it keeps borrowing and why the people paying for its policies cannot see the promised gains,” Atiku said in a statement issued by Phrank Shaibu, his Director of Strategic Communications.
Atiku also called on the government to “identify the old debt newly recorded, the foreign debt whose naira value rose with the exchange rate, and every new loan contracted since he assumed office.”
