A political economist and elder statesman, Professor Pat Utomi has cautioned that Nigeria could face a severe societal crisis, potentially affecting millions of people, if urgent efforts are not made to strengthen the country’s institutions, electoral processes and adherence to the rule of law.
Utomi raised the alarm over what he described as the growing normalisation of abnormal practices in Nigeria. According to him, the development has increased uncertainty, raised the cost of conducting business and weakened the ability of citizens to effectively engage with society, creating conditions that could eventually trigger a breakdown.
He made the remarks on Thursday at the 22nd All Nigeria Editors’ Conference of the Nigerian Guild of Editors (NGE) in Enugu. The conference was held under the theme, “The ballot, the media and the task of keeping democracy alive.”
The professor identified credible elections, effective institutions and clarity and precision in the application of the law as critical pillars for sustainable national development.
Utomi argued that elections should not be viewed simply as periodic occasions for choosing political office holders. Rather, he said, the electoral process serves a broader institutional purpose by conferring legitimacy on government and assuring citizens that they have a meaningful stake in determining the direction of the country.
He said: “They are there for a purpose. They are there for a purpose because it legitimises the government.
“If the people are convinced that there is no point, what is an election? Imagine the amount of money we waste to have elections that are totally meaningless.
“Because they do not legitimise anybody. Everybody assumes that elections are problems.
“Look, I don’t want to make you, let somebody just announce himself as our God. And let’s start following him. If we save that money, we can use it for better things.
“But if we really recognise the value of the electoral process, and it has great value. This is institution building.”
Utomi, who said much of his adult life had been devoted to researching and writing on the relationship between institutions and economic performance, maintained that the strength or weakness of institutions could help explain why some societies achieve sustained progress while others experience decline.
He explained that institutions establish the limits and rules that guide human behaviour, enabling individuals and businesses to anticipate the likely consequences of their actions. Such predictability, he said, reduces uncertainty and transaction costs while providing conditions in which economic activity and social development can flourish.
“A good part of my adult life, I have passionately researched and written about institutions and economic performance. You can tell countries that fail from countries that succeed by essentially looking at their institutions.
“And institutions are simply boundaries. Boundaries that define behaviour. Within the boundaries, you can anticipate outcomes. Outside the boundaries, there are consequences.
“Because of it, uncertainty is reduced, transaction costs are lowered, and people can grow and make progress.
“What has happened to us, unfortunately, is because the abnormal has become so accepted that the transaction costs of engaging in Nigeria are such that we are only heading in one direction, ultimate collapse.”
The political economist further warned that the erosion of institutions could have devastating consequences if Nigerians eventually concluded that they had no legitimate avenue through which they could influence the affairs of their country.
“Anybody who wants, they can test me. It doesn’t happen next year, two years, but if nothing changes, Nigeria will collapse and it will cost millions of lives.
“Because you see, if people realise that they can’t do anything about anything, they keep quiet. And today, they get angry enough, they destroy something. And we descend into anarchy.”
Drawing lessons from other countries, Utomi said prolonged institutional weakness and political breakdown could create conditions for instability and conflict, stressing that Nigeria should not assume it was immune from similar developments.
He referenced the work of American author Robert D. Kaplan, particularly his book The Coming Anarchy, which examined the possibility of political and social disorder emerging in vulnerable societies.
Utomi also pointed to developments in countries such as Sudan and Somalia as illustrations of the potentially damaging consequences of prolonged institutional and political deterioration.
“We saw what happened in Somalia. But somehow, we managed to keep laughing about it. But it’s coming at us,” he said.
The professor also highlighted the role of the media in preserving democratic institutions and promoting accountability. He charged journalists and editors with exercising their responsibilities as key actors in protecting the values and structures that sustain society.
“And journalists, editors, the gatekeepers, have an even more important role to play in that regard than lawyers. But lawyers have an extremely important role,” he said.
