Manchester United’s current manager, Erik ten Hag, is on the verge of achieving a significant milestone, potentially surpassing Sir Alex Ferguson’s win rate if his team secures victory against Tottenham this weekend.
According to an insight from ESPN senior writer Gabriele Marcotti, who shared this noteworthy statistic on social media, highlighting a potential win rate of 59.78%, but cautioned about the nuances of relying on win percentage as a metric in a sport that includes draws.
Marcotti emphasized the importance of sample size, stating, “Sample size matters,” and referred to win percentage as a “bogus metric.”
“If Manchester United beat Tottenham on Sunday, Erik Ten Hag will pass SAF and have the highest win percentage of any permanent manager in the 134 year history of the club (NOTE: Win percentage is a bogus metric in a sport that includes draws… and sample size matters),” he stated.
The potential milestone is based on Ten Hag’s record of 55 wins from 92 games.
The scrutiny arises from the fact that this figure includes successes from the previous season, where United finished third in the Premier League, won the Carabao Cup, and reached the FA Cup final.
Despite United’s challenging current season, marked by an eighth-place position in the Premier League, a Champions League group stage exit, and a Carabao Cup elimination, Ten Hag’s impressive win rate reflects the team’s past successes.
Marcotti delved into the intricacies of win rates, pointing out that Ten Hag has drawn only 11.96% of his games, the lowest ratio in the club’s history.
Furthermore, his loss rate of 28.26% is surpassed only by David Moyes since Sir Alex Ferguson’s tenure.
Even when adopting a point system with three points for a win and one for a draw, Ten Hag’s average of 1.913 per game places him among the elite, with only Sir Alex and Jose Mourinho surpassing him over the past 134 years.
