Financial experts have put the value of Nigeria’s economy at as much as $3 trillion, disputing the Federal Government’s projection of a $1 trillion economy by 2030.
This position was presented to senators in Abuja on Monday during a one-day public hearing on the 2026 budget convened by the Senate Committee on Appropriations.
The committee is chaired by Senator Adeola Solomon Olamilekan (APC, Ogun-West).
While addressing the lawmakers, the Chief Executive Officer of Lagos-based financial management firm, CFG Advisory, Mr Adetilewa Adebajo, said Nigeria could unlock its full economic potential if it significantly reduced its debt profile and reliance on deficit financing.
The Federal Government has projected total expenditure of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year.
Of this amount, N25.27 trillion represents the budget deficit to be financed through borrowing and other means, while N5.9 trillion is earmarked for debt servicing.
Adebajo warned that the scale of the proposed budget could weigh heavily on economic growth and undermine efforts to harness the true value of the economy.
“Nigeria is not a $1trn economy, but a $3trn economy, considering the fact that it’s the 5th highest exporter of rare earth mineral resources in the world”, he told the lawmakers.
He expressed concern that the domestic financial market might struggle to absorb the pressure from sustained government borrowing.
He stated, “The government is to borrow N1trn from the capital market every month, making N12rn in a year. So, how would it finance the N25trn deficit?
Adebajo recalled that the government raised N14 trillion from the market in the previous year, adding that continued dependence on external borrowing would also be imprudent.
He proposed measures to curb leakages in public finances, saying, “We need to remain alert and proactive. All stakeholders must closely monitor critical sectors to ensure that revenues meant for the government actually reach government coffers.
“So, the country can fully benefit from the positive strides currently being made. Otherwise, what we continue to see is a situation where foreign actors, particularly Chinese interests, come into the country, extract our mineral resources, and leave with enormous value, while Nigeria earns little or nothing in return.
“This is clearly a wake-up call. We must take deliberate steps to ensure that the nation earns appropriate revenue from its natural resources.
“Secondly, there is the issue of revenue projections and their actualisation. Government must deal with realistic figures, not just projections on paper.
“Revenue agencies must be compelled to work with actuals and be held accountable for performance. Revenue-generating agencies need to remain on their toes to meet and, where possible, surpass their targets.
“This has already been happening to some extent, which explains the recent increases in government revenue.
“However, these improvements cannot happen without credible revenue projections and sustained pressure on agencies to perform even better.”
In his response, Senator Olamilekan said that although the government intended to reduce borrowing going forward, it could not completely eliminate the use of loans.
He argued that a significant portion of Nigeria’s debt stock originated during the military era and should not be attributed solely to successive civilian governments, which have continued to service the obligations.
According to him, the country’s deficit stands at about N150 trillion against a projected revenue of N300 trillion, a situation he described as manageable.
He noted that while borrowing would still be required to implement the 2026 budget, the long-term strategy was to substantially reduce dependence on loans.
Olamilekan said the government was considering the sale or leveraging of its Joint Venture (JV) assets and other non-debt financing options, stressing that future deficits would be funded mainly through asset optimisation rather than heavy borrowing.
He also assured that fiscal imbalances experienced in recent years would be corrected through the planned elimination of multiple, overlapping budgets.
He explained, “There were four budgets running at the same time. We had the 2023 budget, 2023 supplementary budget, then 2024 budget and 2024 supplementary budget running simultaneously.
“That will never happen again. I can assure you that the implementation period of the 2026 budget will not exceed December 31, 2026.”
Earlier at the hearing, the Minister of State for Finance, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, outlined the economic framework for the year, while the Accountant-General of the Federation, Shamsedeen Ogunjimi, also made a presentation.
