Nigeria is no longer Africa’s biggest fuel importer. A new report shows that South Africa has taken the top spot, as Nigeria now imports less fuel due to rising output from the Dangote Refinery.
The report, released on Wednesday by energy consultancy CITAC, said the change is a major shift in Africa’s oil market. For many years, Nigeria depended heavily on importing fuel, even though it is one of the top crude oil producers in Africa.
In early 2024, the Dangote Petrochemical Refinery began full operations. Located near Lagos, it is the largest single-train refinery in the world, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. This refinery has started producing large amounts of refined fuel for Nigeria and other parts of West Africa.
Because of this, Nigeria imported only 3.1 million metric tonnes of refined petroleum products in the first quarter of 2025. In comparison, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes during the same period.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC.
She also noted that, “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
According to CITAC, crude refining across sub-Saharan Africa jumped by almost 78 per cent in 2024, from 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels per day. This increase was mostly due to the Dangote refinery.
The report also said that Nigeria’s total fuel imports for 2025 could drop to 6.4 million tonnes, while South Africa’s could rise to 15.5 million tonnes.
Explaining the situation in South Africa, the report noted that several of the country’s refineries have shut down due to accidents, ageing equipment, and poor investment. In 2022, the largest refinery, Sapref, was closed. Although the government bought the plant in 2023, it has not yet reopened.
South Africa’s state-owned logistics company, Transnet, says over 60 per cent of the country’s fuel demand is now met by imports.
“South Africa’s infrastructure is mature, but its refining shortfall is now attracting foreign traders who can bridge the gap,” said an industry executive involved in talks over the sale of Shell’s stake in Sapref.
Meanwhile, experts believe Nigeria’s reduced need for imported fuel could help the economy by strengthening the naira, easing pressure on foreign exchange, and reducing the trade deficit. It could also help the government save money, as it has long spent heavily on subsidising imported petrol.
One company affected by this change is Mocoh, a Swiss-based oil trading firm. It used to supply petrol to Nigeria through deals with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC). But now, it has lost much of that business.
“In early 2025, we saw a paradigm shift,” said Mocoh’s CEO, Olivier Lassagne. “We lost most of our petrol trade with NNPC, but that’s pushed us to grow beyond our traditional niche and reposition for the future.”
To adapt, Mocoh is now working with Dangote to export surplus fuel to nearby countries like Benin, Cameroon, and Burkina Faso. But competition is tough.
So far, Dangote has mostly worked with big trading firms like Vitol, BP, and Trafigura for major fuel deals. New companies such as Atmin, supported by Afreximbank, are also trying to enter the market.
“Dangote values flexibility and market pricing. They aren’t tying themselves down with exclusive partners,” Lassagne said.
