Leaders from the BRICS bloc are set to convene in Rio de Janeiro beginning Sunday, where they are expected to present a unified stance against the United States’ increasingly protectionist trade policies. However, internal divisions persist, particularly on how to respond to escalating tensions in the Middle East.
Representing nearly half of the global population and approximately 40% of the world’s GDP, BRICS countries are preparing to challenge U.S. economic measures seen as aggressive and destabilizing. Sources close to the summit revealed that the group aims to denounce Washington’s trade approach, though without directly naming the United States or former President Donald Trump.
Since taking office in January, Trump’s administration has threatened new tariffs targeting both allies and rivals. The latest round of duties, scheduled to be formally announced on Friday and to take effect on July 9, has prompted concern among emerging economies. Diplomats from 11 countries, including Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, are working to finalize a joint statement addressing the growing risks of economic instability.
“We’re anticipating a summit with a cautious tone: it will be difficult to mention the United States by name in the final declaration,” said Marta Fernandez, director of the BRICS Policy Center at Rio’s Pontifical Catholic University.
China is particularly cautious, having recently reached a tariff-easing agreement with Washington. “This doesn’t seem to be the right time to provoke further friction” between the world’s two leading economies, Fernandez added.
Although the summit was intended to showcase BRICS’ expanding global role, its impact is expected to be muted due to the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping. This marks the first time in Xi’s 12-year presidency that he will not attend the summit, a decision likely to prompt speculation.
“I expect there will be speculation about the reasons for Xi’s absence,” said Ryan Hass, a former China director at the U.S. National Security Council and a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The simplest explanation may hold the most explanatory power. Xi recently hosted Lula in Beijing,” he explained.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who remains under international indictment for alleged war crimes, will also not attend in person but is expected to join the proceedings virtually, according to the Kremlin.
Hass noted that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s prominent role at the summit—where he is expected to be the guest of honor at a state lunch—may have contributed to Xi’s decision. “Xi does not want to appear upstaged by Modi,” Hass said. “I expect Xi’s decision to delegate attendance to Premier Li (Qiang) rests amidst these factors.”
Xi’s absence is a setback for Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has been working to elevate Brazil’s global profile. In just one year, Lula’s administration will have hosted the G20, BRICS, and the upcoming COP30 climate summit—key platforms ahead of a tough re-election bid.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, whose nation is still reeling from a 12-day conflict with Israel, will also not attend. A source close to the summit’s planning indicated that BRICS members remain at odds over how to address the conflicts in Gaza and the broader Iran-Israel confrontation.
Iranian delegates have reportedly pushed for a more assertive joint statement supporting the Palestinian cause and condemning the violence in stronger terms. However, internal divisions have made consensus difficult, as some BRICS members remain wary of taking sides too explicitly.
Beyond geopolitics, the summit will focus on future cooperation in key sectors such as artificial intelligence and global health. Since its founding by Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the BRICS group has expanded to include South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Ethiopia, and Indonesia.
Analysts suggest this broader membership enhances BRICS’ global reach but also introduces new challenges in forming cohesive positions.
Despite the hurdles, Brazilian officials remain optimistic. “BRICS (countries), throughout their history, have managed to speak with one voice on major international issues, and there’s no reason why that shouldn’t be the case this time on the subject of the Middle East,” said Brazil’s Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira in remarks to AFP.
