Thailand’s ruling Bhumjaithai Party, led by Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, is poised to secure the largest share of seats in the country’s general election, according to unofficial tallies released by the Election Commission after roughly 94 percent of polling stations had reported on Monday.
The outcome marks the first clear-cut victory for a conservative party in Thailand in several years. The poll, held on Sunday, took place amid sluggish economic conditions and a rise in nationalist sentiment.
Voter turnout was estimated at about 65 percent, notably lower than the participation recorded in the 2023 election.
Figures published on the Election Commission’s website showed Bhumjaithai winning approximately 193 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.
Of the total seats, 400 are filled through direct constituency elections, while the remaining 100 are allocated from party lists based on each party’s share of votes cast on a separate ballot indicating party preference.
To elect a prime minister, a simple majority of 251 seats is required. The preliminary numbers suggest Bhumjaithai will need the support of one or two coalition partners for Anutin to continue as head of government.
The progressive People’s Party, previously forecast to top the poll, was in second place with 118 seats. It captured every constituency in Bangkok and most seats in surrounding provinces, and also led the party-list vote, securing about 3.8 million more party-list ballots than Bhumjaithai.
Trailing further behind was Pheu Thai, the populist party linked to former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 74 seats. The showing is widely viewed as underwhelming for a party that has historically performed strongly in national elections.
Political observers believe Pheu Thai would be willing to join a Bhumjaithai-led coalition if invited to do so.
Anutin has served as prime minister since September, following his role in the Cabinet of his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who was removed from office over an ethics violation related to relations with Cambodia. Parliament was dissolved in December after Anutin faced the prospect of a no-confidence vote, triggering the snap election.
Later border tensions with Cambodia enabled Anutin to reframe his leadership image around national defense, helping restore public support that had waned amid criticism over flooding and financial controversies. His campaign emphasized security concerns and economic stimulus measures.
Although the result departed from earlier opinion polls, it was not entirely unexpected, said Napon Jatusripitak, director of the Center for Politics and Geopolitics at Thailand Future, a Bangkok-based think tank.
Napon said that, beyond the nationalist sentiment stirred by the border clashes, Bhumjaithai effectively leveraged entrenched patronage networks outside Bangkok and other major cities. He added that the party positioned itself as a political base for influential local figures and coordinated with provincial allies to prevent vote splitting.
“The result may have resolved a recurring dilemma in Thai politics, whereby conservative interests have repeatedly intervened to curtail democratic politics after losing at the ballot box. Whether this configuration produces genuine stability, however, remains to be seen,” he said.
Sunday’s ballot also featured a referendum on whether Thailand should move to replace its 2017 constitution, which was drafted under military rule.
Rather than voting on a specific draft, voters were asked whether Parliament should be authorized to begin a formal drafting process, a move that would involve multiple further steps. Around 60 percent backed the proposal, providing a clear mandate to begin work on a new constitution.
