Nigeria’s aviation sector recorded a sharp slowdown in growth in the third quarter of 2025, expanding by just 2.88 per cent as passengers continue to battle soaring airfares, according to new data from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Figures from the NBS Gross Domestic Product report for Q3 2025 showed that the year-on-year nominal growth rate of air transport dropped steeply from 30.60 per cent in the second quarter and 57.21 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 2.88 per cent in Q3.
Despite the slowdown, the total value of output in the aviation sector increased. The report showed that air transport GDP at current basic prices rose from N78.71bn in the third quarter of 2024 to N80.98bn in the same period of 2025.
Earlier in the year, the sector recorded stronger gains in output. In the first quarter of 2025, aviation GDP jumped from N67.28bn in Q1 2024 to N105.77bn, while in the second quarter it increased from N28.59bn to N37.35bn.
However, a closer look at the quarterly movements in 2025 revealed sharp volatility. The size of the aviation sector fell by about 64.7 per cent between Q1 and Q2, dropping from N105.77bn to N37.35bn, before rebounding by about 116.8 per cent in Q3 to N80.98bn.
Even with the rebound, the year-on-year growth rate continued to weaken because the comparison was made against the same periods in 2024. This pushed nominal growth down steadily from 57.21 per cent in Q1 to 30.60 per cent in Q2 and finally 2.88 per cent in Q3.
The NBS data also showed that aviation’s contribution to the overall economy remains small. Air transport accounted for 0.07 per cent of total GDP in Q3 2025, slightly lower than the 0.08 per cent recorded in Q3 2024. Its share stood at 0.11 per cent in Q1 2025 and dipped to 0.04 per cent in Q2.
Meanwhile, the wider Nigerian economy continued to expand in nominal terms. GDP at current basic prices rose from N96.16tn in Q3 2024 to N113.59tn in Q3 2025. On a quarterly basis, GDP increased from N79.51tn in Q1 2024 to N94.05tn in Q1 2025, and from N84.48tn to N100.73tn between Q2 2024 and Q2 2025.
Real growth figures further highlighted the fragile recovery in the aviation sector. In 2024, air transport recorded negative real growth of –9.51 per cent in Q1, –11.18 per cent in Q2 and –9.90 per cent in Q3. In 2025, the sector returned to positive territory, posting –0.81 per cent in Q1, 6.34 per cent in Q2 and 1.60 per cent in Q3, showing easing momentum.
The slowdown is coming at a time when travellers are struggling with sharply higher ticket prices across domestic routes, raising concerns about demand and sustainability in the sector.
In response to public outrage over rising fares, the Senate recently summoned the Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, alongside major industry players for an emergency meeting.
The move followed a motion by Senator Buhari Abdulfatai, who warned that the surge in airfares could disrupt national mobility and festive travel plans for millions of Nigerians.
“We need to invite stakeholders of our airline agencies to interact and interrogate these issues. Immediate steps must be taken before the festive period,” Buhari said during plenary.
Lawmakers noted that one-way tickets on several domestic routes, particularly to the South-South and South-East, have risen by as much as 200 per cent, with some fares exceeding N300,000. Before the Yuletide rush, similar tickets sold for about N120,000.
A market check on airlines’ websites also showed that some fares have climbed by more than 150 per cent compared to pre-holiday prices.
Senator Buhari added that flights from Abuja to Lagos now cost between N400,000 and N600,000 one way, stressing that many Nigerians “can no longer afford” such prices, especially as insecurity and poor road conditions push travellers towards air transport.
