Increasing Ukrainian strikes on the occupied Crimean Peninsula are placing growing pressure on Russia, with the region gradually shifting from a symbol of Kremlin strength to a major military vulnerability, The Gaze reports, citing The Telegraph.
Crimea, which has long been portrayed by the Kremlin as one of President Vladimir Putin’s biggest foreign policy successes, is now emerging as a potential strategic weakness for Moscow, according to British military expert Hamish de Bretton-Gordon.
Writing in an opinion piece for The Telegraph, de Bretton-Gordon said continued Ukrainian attacks on the peninsula are revealing vulnerabilities in Russia’s military supply networks and air defence systems while also creating political challenges for Putin.
The analyst said the recent introduction of a state of emergency in Crimea marks a serious setback for Russia. He described the measures, which closely resemble martial law, as the first public indication from Russian authorities that the security situation on the peninsula has significantly worsened.
De Bretton-Gordon pointed to reports of fuel shortages, power disruptions and growing anxiety among residents as signs that Crimea is experiencing sustained pressure. He added that reports of long lines of people attempting to leave the peninsula indicate declining confidence in Russia’s ability to ensure security.
The military expert also highlighted the changing role of Sevastopol, which previously served as the base and symbol of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. He said repeated Ukrainian missile and drone attacks have reduced its importance, forcing much of the fleet to move elsewhere.
From a military perspective, Crimea remains a crucial Russian asset, functioning as a major logistics centre for forces operating in southern Ukraine. With Ukrainian strikes increasingly affecting supply routes through occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk, the peninsula and the Kerch Bridge have become even more important for maintaining Russian military operations.
“If Ukraine continues to deny Russia the ability to use Crimea as a secure rear base, the consequences for Russian military operations could be extremely serious,” the analyst writes.
De Bretton-Gordon argued that Putin’s strategic position is becoming increasingly complicated as Russia faces difficulties protecting both Moscow and Crimea, two locations carrying major political and symbolic importance for the Kremlin.
He added that Western intelligence assessments indicate Putin is experiencing his weakest position since the 2023 Wagner Group rebellion, though he noted that such pressure does not necessarily mean political change within Russia is imminent.
The analyst further stated that Ukraine has reshaped modern warfare by using advanced technology, innovation and adaptable battlefield tactics to challenge Russia’s larger military force.
Looking ahead, de Bretton-Gordon said any future Russian leadership would inherit the consequences of a prolonged war, including a weakened military, economic strain and a more difficult strategic environment than the one Putin faced before launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
While the assessment represents the analyst’s viewpoint rather than confirmed fact, it underscores Crimea’s growing significance as both a military supply hub and a political symbol as the conflict continues into its fifth year.
The Gaze previously reported that a Ukrainian general described the situation in Crimea as a possible “sign of surrender preparations.”
Read also on The Gaze: Ukraine strikes Russian air defences and military airfields in occupied Crimea.
