The United Nations’ weather agency has warned that a moderate to potentially strong El Nino is developing and could significantly raise global temperatures while increasing the likelihood of extreme weather events in the months ahead.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, El Nino is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The event typically lasts between nine and 12 months and can have far-reaching impacts on weather patterns worldwide.
In its latest assessment released Tuesday, the WMO said warming ocean waters are fueling the development of El Nino conditions. The agency forecasts above-average temperatures across most regions of the world between June and August and expects the phenomenon to persist through at least November.
While the exact intensity of the event remains uncertain due to varying climate model projections, WMO officials stressed the importance of preparedness as conditions continue to evolve.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event — which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heat waves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
El Nino is known for altering climate patterns across multiple regions. It can bring increased rainfall to southern areas of South America and the United States, as well as parts of the Horn of Africa and Central Asia. At the same time, it often contributes to drought conditions in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of South Asia. The phenomenon can also enhance hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO noted.
Saulo pointed out that the previous El Nino episode, which lasted from 2023 to 2024 and was classified as strong by meteorologists, played a major role in making 2024 the hottest year ever recorded.
She further highlighted additional threats linked to rising temperatures, including the spread of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes and ticks, along with mounting pressure on food and water resources.
“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.
The developing weather pattern could also have economic consequences. With consumers already grappling with inflation linked to the Iran war, food prices may face further upward pressure if El Nino disrupts agricultural production.
Hein Schumacher, chief executive officer of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s largest cocoa processors, cautioned that cocoa harvests in Ecuador and West Africa — regions responsible for around 60 percent of global production — could be negatively affected.
“This is something that we are very cautiously observing,” he told media on a call on Tuesday. “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per ton.”
London cocoa futures are currently trading at $3,964 per metric ton, significantly below the peak of more than $9,000 recorded in April 2024.
Several national weather agencies have suggested that the upcoming El Nino could become the strongest in a decade. However, the WMO has adopted a more cautious stance, noting that unusually warm subsurface temperatures have been detected across the tropical Pacific.
According to the agency, temperatures beneath the ocean surface are more than 6 degrees Celsius above average, creating a substantial heat reservoir that is contributing to ongoing surface warming.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the development underscores the urgent need to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.
