The World Bank has said Nigeria is on course to record its fastest economic growth in more than ten years, projecting a growth rate of 4.4 percent for both 2026 and 2027.
The global lender disclosed this in its Global Economic Prospects report released in January 2026, where it upgraded Nigeria’s growth outlook from earlier estimates.
According to the report, Nigeria’s economy grew by an estimated 4.2 percent in 2025, driven mainly by strong performance in the services sector, especially finance and information and communication technology, alongside a modest recovery in agriculture and the country’s rise as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.
The World Bank said, “In Nigeria, growth edged up to 4.2 percent in 2025. The increase was driven by expansion in the services sector—especially the finance and information and communication technology sectors—a modest recovery in agriculture, and the country’s emergence as a net exporter of refined petroleum products.”
Looking ahead, the Bank said growth would rise further in the next two years.
“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 4.4 percent in both 2026 and 2027—the fastest pace in over a decade,” the report stated.
It explained that the expected improvement would be supported by continued expansion in services, a rebound in agricultural output, and a modest increase in non-oil industrial activities.
The World Bank also pointed to ongoing reforms and monetary policies as key drivers of the positive outlook.
“Economic reforms, including in the tax system, along with continued prudent monetary policy, are expected to continue supporting activity,” it said.
According to the Bank, these measures are likely to boost investor confidence and help reduce inflation.
“They are also expected to improve investor sentiment and reduce inflation further. Higher oil output is expected to offset lower international oil prices this year, helping to boost fiscal revenues and strengthen the external balance,” the report added.
However, the World Bank warned that maintaining this growth would depend on Nigeria’s ability to tackle long-standing structural problems. It noted that although fiscal rules were introduced in 2007 to reduce exposure to oil revenue shocks, weak institutions have affected enforcement and fiscal discipline over the years.
The Bank said current reform efforts are aimed at addressing these structural issues to ensure that growth remains strong and inclusive.
The World Bank retained its 4.4 percent growth forecast for Nigeria in 2027, reflecting continued confidence in the country’s medium-term outlook. This projection aligns with the Nigeria Development Update released in October 2025 and represents an upgrade from the 3.7 per cent forecast published in the June 2025 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report.
On the global economy, the World Bank said growth remains resilient despite trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
“The global economy is proving more resilient than anticipated,” the report stated, projecting global growth at 2.6 per cent in 2026 before rising to 2.7 per cent in 2027.
The Bank also projected that economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa would strengthen to 4.3 per cent in 2026, supported by reforms, easing inflation, and resilient domestic investment.
The improved outlook for Nigeria comes amid signs of gradual economic diversification, with stronger services and agriculture expected to support job creation, stabilise prices, and expand government revenue beyond oil.
Nigeria’s economic performance has shown steady improvement in recent years. The National Bureau of Statistics had earlier reported that the country’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.46 per cent year on year in real terms in the third quarter of 2024.
